Estonia, the retail premises leader, won’t stop; moderate growth recorded in Lithuania, while Latvian projects still remain on paper

The stably growing consumption rates in the Baltic States continue to boost development of retail premises both in capital cities and in other regions of the three countries. If we consider distribution of retail area by individual countries and regions, we can see certain trends that are dictated by the number of population and their purchasing power. Traditional shopping centres of regional and local significance are concentrated in the strongest regions and cities of the countries. Evaluation of the overall indicators of the Baltic States shows that Estonia remains the unbeatable leader. If we consider only the shopping centres that offer customers a variety of goods and services (at least 10 different tenants) and are fairly large (at least 4,000 sqm of useful area), the total area amounts to 1,308,000 sqm in Lithuania, 988,000 sqm in Estonia, and 827,000 sqm in Latvia. If we consider retail area per 1,000 residents of the country however, we can see significant differences between the individual Baltic States: in Estonia, there are 751 sqm of retail area per 1,000 residents; this figure is 444 sqm for Lithuania and 413 sqm for Latvia.

If we consider the statistics for the largest and most important regions of the countries only, Harju County in Estonia (together with Tallinn and other cities) has as much as 1,026 sqm of retail area per 1,000 residents of the county. Approximately 43% of the Estonian population live in Harju County, and this concentration of shopping centres should therefore not be surprising. On the other hand, approximately 46% of the Latvian population live in Riga region (including Riga, Jurmala and other towns), which are offered 691 sqm of modern retail area. In Vilnius County, which is the largest county in Lithuania with approximately 27% of the country’s population, most shopping centres are located in Vilnius. Only a few large shopping centres can be found in Ukmerge and Elektrenai. However, despite being the largest county in Lithuania, Vilnius County compared to the main regions of Estonia and Latvia, demonstrates the lowest figure – 652 sqm of retail area per 1,000 residents.

Estonia, being the leader in terms of supply of retail premises, is leading in terms of retail area per 1,000 residents not only in the most populated county but also in other parts of the country. The abundance of shopping centres is also observed in other cities of the country (Tartu, Narva, Parnu), where modern retail area per 1,000 residents is from 1,000 to 1,700 sqm (Parnu, where this indicator is as high as 1,711 sqm, is the leader). Statistics do not always reflect the actual situation however, since very often cities themselves and the shopping centres available there become sites attracting customers from other regions of the country and foreign tourists. For instance, the Estonian resort town of Parnu is located between Riga and Tallinn and receives numerous visits from the people travelling between the two capitals. The town of Parnu and Parnu County also have many summer houses whose residents during the summer do not have many options and therefore go to the town of Parnu to do their shopping. Although no other shopping centres have been planned in this region, the owners of the available premises can boast stable rents and successfully operating shopping centres.

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